Monday, January 23, 2017

Claque

Any performer will tell you that nothing kills a live show like an audience that sits stony faced through your best lines. That's why many or most studio audience shows have paid audiences, people paid a few bucks to laugh and cheer - a claque, to use the term borrowed from French.

A TV pro like Donald Trump knows this, which is why he paid actors to cheer at some of his campaign speeches, and why, apparently, he brought a few dozen of his guys to pack the front rows for his speech to the CIA.

The CIA wasn't amused, which is probably why this story is in the press today.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Back Off?

Trump has gotten off to a pretty bad start to his presidency, but I'm not sure further protest is appropriate now. It's probably not good to provoke him to policies motivated purely by spite. I suggest that it may be appropriate to see what he is actually planning to do and then pick our battles judiciously.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Both Pathetic and Frightening

Presidential inaugurations draw big crowds.  Donald Trump's was no exception.  If one looks at time matched photos, though, it's pretty clear that there is a bunch of empty space at Trump's that was filled for Obama's.  See, e.g., http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/315494-white-house-spokesman-blasts-media-over-crowd-sizes-in-first

It was a cold rainy day, so that doesn't prove much, but Trump's reaction was bizarre.  He goes over to talk with the CIA, and spends most of the time complaining about the media faking pictures of his "biggest crowd to ever attend" an inaugural.  Then he sends his press secretary out to yell at the press for not reporting an obvious falsehood.

As somebody put it, this is a man at war, not with the media, but with the truth.  Unfortunately we have seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well.

Josh Marshall:

5:46 PM: Verbatim quote: "This was the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration. Period. Both in person and around the globe." 
On the one hand it is chilling, bizarre, un-American to see the President's spokesman begin the term excoriating and threatening the press, telling demonstrable lies, speaking with a palpable rage in his voice. On the other, the President and his toadies are on the second day almost vanishingly small. They are embarrassing themselves. They look silly. They look ridiculous. It is hard to be intimidated by ridiculousness. I suspect this will be the abiding duality of the Trump presidency.
Marshall has the video.

I have a difference of opinion from Marshall though.  I find it easy to be intimidated by a ridiculous megalomaniac with his finger on thousands of nuclear weapons.

Why?

Vintage Feynman:


Reactions

The New York Times collected reactions from here and abroad to Trump's speech. A common theme of writers from third world dictatorships was that he reminded them of home. Here is Mohammed Hanif:

KARACHI, Pakistan — Did President Donald J. Trump just say “America First”? It’s kind of worrying that American presidents have to steal slogans from third-world dictators.

In Pakistan, we had a military ruler named Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He made lots of friends in Washington, D.C., after taking over in a bloodless coup in 1999. On his return from his first visit to Washington, he proclaimed “Pakistan First.” He was such a great buddy of President George W. Bush that he got the latter to endorse his book on television. These buddies started new wars, rekindled old ones. Lots of people died, lots more fell into new depths of poverty.

When you say America first or Pakistan first — or whatever unlucky country it is that allows a pampered old man to say those things — it always means me first. My family first. My friends first. My friends’ friends are going to be O.K. I’ll decide what’s best for this country. In fact, I have already decided what’s best for this country: me. The bargain will work out like this: At the end of this, there will be lots more dead people, but we’ll have even more money than we did before.

And Mona Eltahawy:

CAIRO — “He sounds just like one of our despots,” said a friend after we watched Donald J. Trump speak at his inauguration. It was an address worthy of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, our general turned president.

It was stunning to watch Mr. Trump try to mold the United States in the shape of Egypt, where the military has ruled us, in one form or another, for over six decades.

No wonder Mr. Trump called Mr. Sisi “a fantastic guy” when they met in New York last year.

All his buddies seem to be dictators and thugs.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump to World: FU

A speech as redolent of grievance as it was devoid of detail.

The Horror, The Horror

And I'm not talking about Trump's inauguration yet. Well, maybe that's part of it. My actual subject is my reaction when I saw the first homework assignment in my Astronomy class in Dynamics and Hydrodynamics. Of course it wasn't based on the class material, since there wasn't any yet. Instead it was more of a basic math pretest: Differential equations, analyzing the behavior of integrals and deriving vector identities - stuff I hadn't done, for the most part, in fifty years. I panicked when I couldn't see how to get the inhomogeneous solution to the very elementary first differential equation. It reminded me of the feeling I had when I first saw the problem set on my PhD comprehensive and realized that there was not a single problem on it that I knew how to solve.

However, just as on that long ago comprehensive, once I pondered the problems a bit I gradually realized that I did have the tools, in this case rusted, dull, and buried deep, for solving the problems. In fact there was a lot of joy in finding out the pleasure of doing math.

Of course I'm still pretty horrified at the other first day assignment, writing a parallelizable program to analyze the interactions of hundreds of thousands of stars or planetoids interacting under gravity. It's been a long, long time since I wrote code, and I never used modern parallelization stuff.

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

The Lessons of History

People argue all the time about what, if anything, can be learned from the study of history, but I have reached one pretty definite conclusion:

People, including or perhaps especially leaders, make a hell of alot of catastrophic mistakes.

By catastrophic, I mean mistakes that get them personally and frequently entire populations, slaughtered.

Monday, January 16, 2017

Posse Comitatus*

Every self-respecting rapper, so I hear, has his posse of friends or hangers on. Taylor Swift too. Central Eurasian bigshots took the concept further:

In the early form of the Central Eurasian Culture Complex, the highly trained warrior members of a lord’s comitatus— a guard corps loyal not to the government but to the lord personally— took an oath to defend him to the death. The core members of the comitatus, his sworn friends, committed suicide, or were ritually executed, in order to be buried with him if he happened to predecease them. The peripheral cultures’ historical sources explicitly say so, time and again, as Ibn Faḍlân remarks about the Vikings on the Volga, who were known as Rus:

One of the customs of the king of the Rus is that with him in his palace he has four hundred men from among his most valiant and trusted men. They die when he dies and are killed for his sake.

Beckwith, Christopher I.. Empires of the Silk Road: A History of Central Eurasia from the Bronze Age to the Present (p. 16). Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.

* The term has a somewhat different meaning in English Common Law.

Haaretz: Apocalypse Tomorrow

Sasha Abramsky, writing in El Haaretz:

The United States, that most grand of human political experiments, is, in early 2017, hurtling toward a catastrophe.

Trumpism is ascendant, and Trump, narcissist, bigot, totalitarian thug, stands triumphant, the entire American political and military apparatus at his disposal. It is, by any measure, a revolutionary moment. And, like all revolutions, it privileges extreme personalities over more mundane, middle-of-the-road, technocrats.

In the year 2017, the American Republic – founded by Washington, Jefferson and other Enlightenment luminaries, saved by Lincoln, brought to its modern pre-eminence by Roosevelt – is being handed over to an unholy alliance-of-convenience made up of white nationalists, neo-Nazis, Islamophobes, Russophiles, supporters of the ultranationalist wing of Israeli politics, billionaire plutocrats and conspiracists.

They use social media to bully and to intimidate, and they threaten violence, with increasing frequency, against their opponents – whom they view not as partners in a democratic discourse but as “enemies.”  

Trump’s right-hand man in the White House will be Steve Bannon – who, while in charge of the Breitbart website, peddled a vast array of racially and religiously inflammatory ideas and shamelessly blurred the lines between real and fake news in pursuit of his political agenda. Breitbart has been instrumental in “normalizing” the so-called alt-right, all the way down to the Sieg Heiling neo-Nazi hoodlums who met for a triumphal post-election get-together in Washington D.C.; as well as the white nationalists in Whitefish, Montana who recently published the names and addresses of all Jews living in their vicinity, in the hope of ginning up a social media trolling war against them.

read more: http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.764870 

Friday, January 13, 2017

Genomics of Spain

Provoked by Luboš Motl, AKA, Lumo, the Lumonator, I have been digging into the genomic history of Spain. I found this very nice article.

Two excerpts:

A wide range of peoples have settled in Iberia since the end of the last Ice Age. Phoenicians, Celts, Greeks, Jews, Romans, Goths, Suebi, Franks, Arabs and Berbers. All have left their genetic print on the populations of the regions where they settled. This page attempts to identify their genetic markers through the use of Y-chromosomal (Y-DNA) haplogroups, which are passed on nearly unaltered from father to son, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is inherited only from one's mother, and genome-wide studies.

The modern Iberian gene pool is overwhelmingly Mediterranean, and yet the sequencing of a 7,000 year-old hunter-gatherer from La Braña in Asturias, revealed that Mesolithic Iberian shared much closer genetic affinities to modern Northeast Europeans (apart from having dark skin). This shows just how much the genetic landscape of the peninsula has changed in the course of a few eventful millennia. Yet, a single Mesolithic genome is not enough to get an unbiased picture of what all Iberian people were like at the time. It is cannot be excluded yet that North Africans hunter-gatherers may have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar on boats and colonised the Iberian peninsula from the south, while northern and central European foragers occupied northern Sp

ain.

And this on the Celtic component:

It is perhaps the wealth of Megalithic people that attracted, through the Beaker network, the Indo-European speakers from central Europe, and caused them to invade western Europe and destroy the Megalithic cultures that had lasted for several millennia. Equipped with bronze weapons and horses, these Indo-Europeans were not cereal farmers but cattle herders from the Pontic Steppe, north of the Black Sea. They had already conquered the Balkans, the Carpathians, Poland, Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic countries between 4,000 and 2,800 BCE, causing the collapse of all the Chalcolithic and Neolithic cultures in those areas. The southern R1b branch had advanced from the Hungarian plain to Bohemia and Germany by 2500 BCE (presence of R1b confirmed by Lee at al. 2012), and continued its migration until the Atlantic coast, reaching Britain and western France by 2,200 BCE and Ireland by 2,000 BCE. These R1b men were the Proto-Celts and their Y-DNA is now found in over half of Spanish and Portuguese men.

This was a mainly male invasion, as much less maternal DNA has the Proto-Celtic signature.

Hispanic

One thing - possibly the only thing - I learned in my long ago course in Philosophy of Science, is that it's fruitless to argue about definitions. Nonetheless, it is useful to see how various people use a word. Here are the ways some people define the word "Hispanic:"

Wikipedia:

The term Hispanic (Spanish: hispano or hispánico, Galician: hispánico, Asturian: hispanu, Basque: hispaniar, Catalan: hispà,[1][2] hispàno[3]) broadly refers to the people, nations, and cultures that have a historical link to Spain. It commonly applies to countries once colonized by the Spanish Empire in the Americas (see Spanish colonization of the Americas) and Asia, particularly the countries of Latin America and the Philippines. It could be argued that the term should apply to all Spanish-speaking cultures or countries, as the historical roots of the word specifically pertain to the Iberian region. It is difficult to label a nation or culture with one term, such as Hispanic, as the ethnicities, customs, traditions, and art forms (music, literature, dress, architecture, cuisine, and others) vary greatly by country and region. The Spanish language and Spanish culture are the main traditions.[4][5]

Hispanic originally referred to the people of ancient Roman Hispania, which roughly comprised the Iberian Peninsula, including the contemporary states of Spain, Portugal, Andorra, and the British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar.[6][7][8]

...

Today, organizations in the United States use the term as a broad catchall to refer to persons with a historical and cultural relationship with Spain, regardless of race and ethnicity.[4][5] The U.S. Census Bureau defines the ethnonym Hispanic or Latino to refer to "a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race"[34] and states that Hispanics or Latinos can be of any race, any ancestry, any ethnicity.[35] Generically, this limits the definition of Hispanic or Latino to people from the Caribbean, Central and South America, or other Hispanic (Spanish or Portuguese) culture or origin, regardless of race. Latino can refer to males or females, while Latina refers to only females.

US Census:

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requires federal agencies to use a minimum of two ethnicities in collecting and reporting data: Hispanic or Latino and Not Hispanic or Latino. OMB defines "Hispanic or Latino" as a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race.

People who identify with the terms “Hispanic” or “Latino” are those who classify themselves in one of the specific Hispanic or Latino categories listed on the decennial census questionnaire and various Census Bureau survey questionnaires – “Mexican, Mexican Am., Chicano” or ”Puerto Rican” or “Cuban” – as well as those who indicate that they are “another Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin.”

The 2010 Census question on Hispanic origin included five separate response categories and one area where respondents could write in a specific Hispanic origin group. The first response category was intended for respondents who do not identify as Hispanic. The remaining response categories (“Mexican, Mexican Am., Chicano”; “Puerto Rican”; “Cuban”; and “another Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin”) and write-in answers can be combined to create the OMB category of Hispanic.

Merriam-Webster:

Definition of Hispanic

1 : of or relating to the people, speech, or culture of Spain or of Spain and Portugal

2 : of, relating to, or being a person of Latin American descent living in the U.S.; especially : one of Cuban, Mexican, or Puerto Rican origin

Anyone wishing to discuss in these pages who is or is not Hispanic should cite one of these or else provide their own definition from a credible standard source.

Genetics of Europe

This post is provoked by a steady stream of genetic nonsense coming from a couple of prolific commentators. As it happens, this is an area I have recently studied and I have a modest familiarity with the literature. Modern Europeans derive most of their ancestry from at least three waves of settlement, ultimately from Africa, via the Middle East. The first wave or waves consisted of hunter gatherers who interbred with Neandertals. They were pushed back into a few refugia (Spain, Italy, Greece) during the peak of the last ice age, but spread out again after the ice retreated 11,000 years or so ago. About eight millennia ago, a second wave, neolithic farmers from the Middle East, spread through Europe, and mixed with remnants of the hunter-gatherer populations. The Basques of Spain seem to retain relatively unmixed genetics from these farmers. A three or four millennia later, Central Asian pastoralists speaking Indo-European invaded and mixed to various extents with the preceding populations. Their languages, including Celtic, dominate nearly all of Europe today.

Celtic is a language grouping which at one time dominated much of Europe. Descendants of Celtic speakers are genetically diverse. Many of the languages of pre-Carthaginian Spain appear to have been Celtic. See Wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-Roman_peoples_of_the_Iberian_Peninsula

Genetics of the Iberian Peninsula

Spanish genetics are complex, due to repeated waves of immigration and colonization. Aside from the Basques, who are largely unmixed with the later waves of immigration, the Spanish incorporate genes mostly from the pastoralists together with those of Greek, Phoenician, Carthaginian, Roman, Visigoth and Arab conquerors. Consequently, modern Spanish populations includes a lot of genes from all these areas including North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Trump Blackmail Report

Paul Wood of the BBC reports on the sources of the story. There seem to be four of them, but its not clear that they are independent. H/T Kevin Drum:

Claims about a Russian blackmail tape were made in one of a series of reports written by a former British intelligence agent. As a member of MI6, he had been posted to the UK's embassy in Moscow and now runs a consultancy giving advice on doing business in Russia. He spoke to a number of his old contacts in the FSB, the successor to the KGB, paying some of them for information.

....The former MI6 agent is not the only source for the claim about Russian kompromat on the president-elect. Back in August, a retired spy told me he had been informed of its existence by "the head of an East European intelligence agency".

Later, I used an intermediary to pass some questions to active duty CIA officers dealing with the case file — they would not speak to me directly. I got a message back that there was "more than one tape", "audio and video", on "more than one date", in "more than one place" — in the Ritz-Carlton in Moscow and also in St Petersburg — and that the material was "of a sexual nature". The claims of Russian kompromat on Mr Trump were "credible", the CIA believed.

....Last April, the CIA director was shown intelligence that worried him. It was — allegedly — a tape recording of a conversation about money from the Kremlin going into the US presidential campaign.

It was passed to the US by an intelligence agency of one of the Baltic States. The CIA cannot act domestically against American citizens so a joint counter-intelligence taskforce was created....A lawyer — outside the Department of Justice but familiar with the case — told me that three of Mr Trump's associates were the subject of the inquiry. "But it's clear this is about Trump," he said.

Trump has shown no inclination to show his tax returns. They might shed light on the truth or falsity of the allegations.

A History of Central Asia

(1)By (Insert date)____________ the (insert tribal name) ________ had settled in the valley of the (insert name)____________ and developed agriculture and cities like __________. The ruler _____________, who styled himself (pick one: Khan, QaKhan, Emir, King, Ataliq, Beg, other) endowed glorious (pick one: Madrassas, Mosques, Churches, Buddhist Temples) and the culture thrived. At that point, they were invaded and conquered by steppe warriors who were (Turks, Mongols, Others) of the (insert name)___________ tribal confederation organized by the great leader (insert name)____________. After his death he was succeeded by his (pick one or more: son, nephew, brother, brother-in-law, general) (insert name)____________ who was subsequently murdered by his (see previous list, pick one or more). (2)Return to (1), rinse, repeat.

Las Cruces

H/T to Lumo, who sent me to the Wikipedia page for Las Cruces:

Census 2010 data[edit]

As of the 2010 census Las Cruces had a population of 97,618.[2] The ethnic and racial makeup of the population was:[14] 34.3% White American 2.4% African American or Black 1.7% Native Americans 1.6% Asian 0.1% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 3.5% Two or more races 56.8% Hispanic and Latino Americans (Hispanics may be of any race)

As of the census of 2000, there were 74,267 people, 29,184 households, and 18,123 families residing in the city. The population density was 1,425.7 people per square mile (550.5/km²). There were 31,682 housing units at an average density of 608.2 per square mile (234.8/km²). The racial makeup of the city was 69.01% White, 2.34% African American, 1.74% Native American, 1.16% Asian, 0.07% Pacific Islander, 21.59% from other races, and 4.10% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 51.73% of the population.

From this one might suspect that Las Cruces has seen a dramatic decline in "White" population. That's certainly not the case. If anything, the opposite, as our city is flooded with (nearly all white) immigrants from California and the cold regions. What is probably changing is the percentage of Hispanics identifying (also) as White. Virtually all local Hispanics are of mixed European and Native American ancestry. There are old Hispanic families here with names like Singh and Johanson as well as old, predominantly anglophone families that trace their ancestry back to the first Spanish explorers and settlers. The rate of intermarriage between Hispanics and anglophones is very substantial.